Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Election 2010 - my prediction

It's all over bar the postal vote rigging allegations, and injury claims against RisoGraph manufacturers.

History will decide which factors from this election will fade into footnotes - the arguments over the increase in National Insurance, Mrs Duffy, the strength of Peter Hain's tan...What matters now is the direction of the country after May 6th. From the real truth on public spending and how to slow down the rate of Government borrowing, through to the consequences closer to the home of the ongoing Greek financial crisis and relations with the USA and Russia, this country is facing one of its most uncertain futures. A vote tomorrow could change your life in a way no election has done for a generation.

This election has had many highlights, especially for Liberal Democrat supporters. But the important day is tomorrow - not the "I Love Nick" memes or anecdotes about meeting black men or Alex Salmond whinging like a drunk on a platform; the simple act of a "X" on a piece of paper could well decide the fate of millions.

I have never known an election like it. So predicting the result was never going to be easy. With my finger in the air, the runes and stars consulted, tea-leaves studied, and such like, my gut feeling is below....Let us see what happens when the real votes are counted at 10pm....

CONSERVATIVE 35% (BBC Prediction - 238 seats, Electoral Calculus Prediction - 241)
LABOUR 33% (BBC 310 , EC 305)
LIB DEM 25% (BBC 73 , EC 73)
Others 7% (BBC 29, EC 13)

BBC - LABOUR Short by 16 EC - LABOUR Short by 21